Geopolitical events continue to significantly shape global mobility patterns, creating both challenges and opportunities for companies and employees engaged in cross-border work. Recent developments have highlighted the complex interplay between political decisions, economic factors, and mobility trends. From shifting immigration policies and security concerns to evolving economic landscapes and emerging work models, the global mobility landscape is in a constant state of flux. This article explores the multifaceted impact of geopolitical events on global mobility, providing recent examples, data-driven insights, and analysis of how these factors are reshaping the way organisations manage their international workforce and operations.
Geopolitical Events: Immigration Policy Shifts
Immigration policies remain a key area impacted by geopolitical events. Countries are adapting their approaches in response to various factors:
Brexit Aftermath
The UK’s exit from the EU has led to new immigration rules for EU citizens, significantly impacting talent mobility between the UK and EU. According to recent data from the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, EU immigration to the UK has decreased substantially since Brexit.
In the year ending June 2023, long-term immigration of EU citizens to the UK was estimated at 129,000, compared to 198,000 in the year ending June 2022. This is significantly lower than pre-Brexit levels, which peaked at 487,000 in the year ending March 2015.
Despite the overall decrease, EU immigration has shown signs of recovery since the COVID-19 pandemic. The 129,000 EU immigrants in the year ending June 2023 represent an increase from the low of 52,000 in the year ending June 2021, though still well below pre-Brexit figures.
Work remains a key driver for EU immigration, with an estimated 49,000 EU citizens coming to the UK for work-related reasons in the year ending June 2023. This is higher than the previous year but substantially lower than pre-Brexit levels.
These changes have created challenges for organisations seeking to attract and retain EU talent, potentially affecting the UK’s ability to address skill shortages in certain sectors. Companies now need to navigate a more complex immigration system when hiring EU nationals, which can increase costs and timelines for international recruitment.
US Policy Changes
Recent changes in US immigration policies have significantly impacted work visa programs, particularly the H-1B visa program, which is crucial for tech companies and other employers seeking to recruit global talent. According to a February 2024 report by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), the H-1B denial rate for initial employment has decreased substantially, reaching 2% in FY 2023. This is a decrease from 4% in FY 2022 and is markedly lower than the 24% denial rate recorded in FY 2018. This decline in denial rates is attributed to court decisions and legal settlements that compelled U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) to change its policies.
However, despite these lower denial rates, the number of H-1B petitions for initial employment approved in FY 2023 was 117,855, which is lower than the 125,695 approved in FY 2022 and the 131,549 in FY 2021. The top three countries of origin for approved H-1B petitions in FY 2023 were India, accounting for 66.4%, followed by China at 11.5% and Canada at 2.5%. In terms of employers, Amazon led with the most approved H-1B petitions for initial employment in FY 2023, totalling 9,602, followed by Infosys with 5,833 and TCS with 4,127.
These changes reflect a complex policy environment that continues to evolve, affecting companies’ ability to attract and retain international talent. While denial rates have decreased, the overall number of approved petitions has also declined, indicating ongoing challenges in the global talent mobility landscape.
Geopolitical Events: Security Concerns and Travel Restrictions
Geopolitical tensions and security issues continue to impact global mobility:
Middle East Conflicts
Ongoing conflicts in parts of the Middle East have led to travel advisories and restrictions for many multinational companies. The International SOS Risk Outlook 2024 report highlights the increasing impact of geopolitical tensions on global mobility and business operations. According to the report, 72% of surveyed organisations anticipated that geopolitical threats would significantly affect their operations in 2024, a notable increase from 55% in the previous year.
The recent Israel-Hamas conflict has particularly heightened concerns, with 62% of respondents expecting it to negatively impact their organisation’s risk exposure in 2024. In response to this volatility, 63% of organisations have modified their policies or procedures related to evacuations and relocations, indicating a proactive approach to managing potential crises arising from geopolitical instability. Furthermore, 31% of organisations have increased their investment in crisis management exercises, while 29% have boosted their spending on crisis management software or applications.
These findings underscore the growing importance of geopolitical risk assessment and management in global mobility strategies. Companies are increasingly focusing on developing flexible, short-term assignment models and enhancing their crisis management capabilities to mitigate risks in volatile regions. As geopolitical tensions continue to evolve, organisations must remain vigilant and adaptable to ensure the safety and effectiveness of their global workforce.
Cybersecurity Threats
Recent surveys and reports highlight the challenges faced by companies in securing work visas for foreign specialists, especially in sensitive sectors such as technology and defence. For instance, the rise in state-sponsored cyberattacks has led to stricter vetting processes for foreign workers in these industries. According to a survey by PwC, balancing national security concerns with the need for global talent remains a significant challenge for both governments and businesses.
Geopolitical Events: Economic Factors
Economic policies and trade disputes have far-reaching effects on global mobility:
US-China Trade Tensions
Ongoing trade disputes between the US and China continue to impact talent exchanges and business operations between the two countries. According to the American Chamber of Commerce in China’s 2024 Business Climate Survey:
The geopolitical environment remains a significant concern for US companies operating in China. 62% of respondents cited US-China tensions as one of the top three challenges affecting their business operations, up from 57% in the previous year.
Despite these tensions, many US companies remain committed to the Chinese market. 52% of respondents reported increasing their investments in China in 2023, while 74% stated they have no plans to relocate manufacturing or sourcing outside of China.
However, the survey also revealed that 43% of companies have delayed or decreased investments in China due to geopolitical concerns. Additionally, 39% of respondents reported that the US-China relationship has decreased their appetite for future investment in China.
Regarding talent mobility, 23% of companies reported difficulties in obtaining visas and travel documents for executives and employees. This suggests that while the overall business commitment remains strong, there are still challenges in facilitating talent exchanges between the two countries.
These findings indicate that while US-China trade tensions continue to create a challenging environment for talent mobility and business operations, many companies are adapting their strategies to navigate these complexities. The situation remains fluid, with businesses balancing their long-term commitments to the Chinese market against the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
Regional Economic Blocs
The strengthening of regional economic partnerships, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in Asia, is likely to have significant impacts on talent mobility within the region. While specific data on the first year of RCEP implementation is not available, regional economic agreements generally aim to facilitate the movement of goods, services, and people among member countries. Such integration efforts can reshape global mobility patterns, with potential implications for both member and non-member countries.
Geopolitical Events: Emerging Trends
Several new trends are shaping the future of global mobility:
Remote Work Policies
The pandemic-induced shift to remote work has led to significant changes in global mobility patterns and policies. According to the Migration Policy Institute report, as of 2024, over 40 countries had introduced some form of digital nomad or remote work visa, allowing professionals to work remotely from their territories for extended periods. These visas typically allow stays of six months to two years and often offer tax incentives to attract remote workers. The rise of these visas represents a shift in how countries view immigration, focusing on attracting talent rather than just filling specific job shortages.
The KPMG study “Current trends in remote working” provides additional insights into how organisations are adapting to this new reality. The study found that 39% of surveyed organisations now have a formal remote work policy in place, up from just 14% pre-pandemic. Moreover, 55% of organisations allow some form of cross-border remote working, although most (76%) limit this to less than 25% of their workforce. The top challenges for implementing cross-border remote work policies include tax compliance (cited by 80% of respondents), immigration compliance (70%), and permanent establishment risks (65%).
These trends are reshaping global mobility strategies. Companies are adapting their policies to accommodate remote work arrangements but must navigate complex tax, immigration, and compliance issues. The Deloitte Global Workforce Trends report supports this, indicating that 80% of organisations now allow some level of remote and hybrid work models. As remote work becomes more prevalent, global mobility professionals face new challenges in managing a dispersed workforce while ensuring compliance with various national regulations. This evolving landscape presents both opportunities and complexities for organisations seeking to leverage global talent.
Climate-Related Mobility
Increasing awareness of climate change is influencing mobility patterns and business strategies. According to Deloitte’s insights on climate change migration:
Climate change is expected to displace millions of people in the coming decades, with estimates ranging from 25 million to 1 billion climate migrants by 2050. This large-scale movement of people will have significant implications for businesses and global mobility strategies.
Companies are beginning to recognise the need to factor climate risks into their long-term planning. This includes reassessing long-term assignments in areas vulnerable to climate risks, as well as considering how climate migration might affect their workforce and operations.
The impact of climate change on mobility is multifaceted:
- Talent acquisition and retention: Companies may need to adjust their strategies to attract and retain talent in areas affected by climate change.
- Supply chain disruption: Climate-related events can disrupt supply chains, potentially necessitating the relocation of operations or sourcing alternatives.
- Market shifts: Changing climate patterns may lead to shifts in consumer behaviour and market demand, requiring businesses to adapt their global strategies.
- Infrastructure resilience: Businesses may need to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure or relocate facilities to less vulnerable areas.
- Policy and regulatory changes: Companies must stay abreast of evolving climate policies that may affect their operations and mobility strategies.
The Deloitte Global Workforce Trends report supports this, indicating that 81% of organisations believe that anticipating and considering broader societal and environmental risks when making workforce decisions is important or very important to their organisation’s success. However, only 19% feel ready to do so effectively.
As climate change continues to reshape global patterns of human settlement and economic activity, global mobility professionals will play a crucial role in helping organisations navigate these complex challenges and opportunities.
Talent Localisation
Geopolitical uncertainties are prompting some multinational companies to focus more on developing local talent pools rather than relying heavily on expatriate assignments. A study by Deloitte revealed that talent localisation strategies are gaining prominence as organisations seek to navigate geopolitical complexities and build more resilient global operations. The 2024 Global Workforce Trends report by Deloitte highlights that companies are rethinking how they fill opportunities by sourcing talent without geographical limitations and enhancing skillsets through cross-border opportunities. This shift towards localisation is driven by several factors:
- Talent shortages: 71% of CEOs have cited talent shortages as their top external challenge to meeting their business objectives.
- Skills-based approach: Over 80% of leaders say a shift from jobs to skills demands greater cross-functional collaboration.
- Organisational importance: 93% of leaders said that moving away from a focus on jobs is important or very important to their organisation’s success.
The Deloitte report suggests that Global Talent Mobility can help organisations grow the available pool of talent and skillsets by removing location barriers for the sourcing of desired skills. The knowledge and experience of Global Talent Mobility should influence talent strategy early in the process, acting as a conduit for workers to upskill/reskill and leveraging data and technology to activate a “skills-based” marketplace.
Final Thoughts on The Impact of Geopolitical Events on Global Mobility
The global mobility landscape continues to evolve in response to geopolitical events. Companies must remain agile, staying informed about policy changes and geopolitical developments to effectively manage their global workforce. As the world becomes increasingly interconnected yet politically complex, the ability to navigate these challenges will be critical for successful global mobility strategies. The Deloitte report emphasises that moving talent around the world remains a business imperative. Companies need to mobilise the best talent to fuel opportunities in an intensely competitive global landscape. However, global mobility has remained complex, costly, and impersonal. Organisations are encouraged to embrace new technologies, explore innovative insights, and develop a culture of agility to unlock new global mobility opportunities.
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